A Pearland homeowner sent me two quotes last month for the same 3.5-ton replacement. One was $10,400. The other was $13,900. Both listed "16 SEER2 system, new coil, new pad, warranty." Neither said a word about the duct system, the permit, or how anyone had decided 3.5 tons was the right size for a 2,100-square-foot 1998 build. That gap, $3,500 for two paragraphs that look identical, is what this post takes apart.

I'm using the higher number because it's the more common Houston-area figure when a company sends a salesperson to the house instead of quoting from a phone call. Our HVAC hub has the national picture and the Texas HVAC guide covers the state; this one is about where the money in a Gulf Coast quote actually goes, and which lines you can and can't push on. The figures below are an illustrative quote built from the ranges I see in Houston-area proposals, not a bid from any one company.

The short version: Roughly 40% of a $13,900 quote is the equipment, about 16% is labor, and around 20% is overhead and margin. The parts that separate a good job from a bad one, a load calculation, a permit, a real drain-line safety switch and duct corrections, together cost under $1,500 and are the first things a low bid drops.

The $13,900 quote, line by line

Line itemTypical costWhat you should see
Outdoor condenser, coil and air handler (matched set)$5,900Brand, full model numbers, SEER2 and EER2 of the matched combination
Refrigerant line set replacement$650Length, and whether the old set is being flushed or replaced
Pad, disconnect, whip$350Composite pad, not the old cracked slab reused
Condensate drain, float switch, secondary pan$400A float switch on both the primary and secondary drain
Plenum and duct transition work$700Sealed with mastic, not tape
Thermostat$250Compatible model, not a bundled upsell
Permit and inspection$300City permit number on the paperwork
Refrigerant recovery and haul-away$250EPA-certified recovery of the old charge
Labor (two techs, one long day, sometimes two)$2,200Usually rolled in, but worth asking
Overhead, warranty reserve, margin$2,900Never itemized; this is where quotes differ most
Total$13,900

The $10,400 bid in Pearland dropped roughly $1,600 from the equipment tier, about $900 from the duct work and drain hardware, and the rest from a thinner margin. The homeowner picked the cheaper one and found out in July why the duct line mattered.

The equipment line is smaller than you think, and the model number matters more than the brand

At $5,900 the equipment is less than half the quote. Trane, Carrier, Lennox, Rheem and Goodman all sell a version of the same architecture, and the real price differences between a builder-grade single-stage 14.3 SEER2 unit and a two-stage 17 SEER2 unit run about $1,500 to $2,500 installed, not the $5,000 gap a brochure implies. For most of Texas the federal regional standard for a residential split air conditioner is 14.3 SEER2 for systems under 45,000 Btu, so anything you buy already clears the floor.

The thing to check is that the outdoor unit, the indoor coil and the air handler are an AHRI-matched combination. A quote that lists a 16 SEER2 condenser but reuses your existing coil is quoting you a rating the mixed pair never earned. Ask for the AHRI certificate number of the combination. It takes the salesperson two minutes to look up, and if he can't, that tells you what you need to know.

Since January 2025, new residential equipment ships with R-454B instead of R-410A. That refrigerant is mildly flammable, which is why installers need current training on it. You don't need to do anything about that as a buyer, except to be suspicious of a company that offers to install a leftover R-410A system at a big discount. The federal Section 25C credit that used to trim a few hundred dollars off a heat pump or AC job ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025, so no quote this year should be counting it as a discount.

Sizing: the line that isn't on the quote

The single most important number in this job is not on the paper. It's the cooling load, calculated using ACCA Manual J, and it's the reason a 3.5-ton unit might be right or might be a full ton too big. A lot of Houston houses built in the 1990s have been reinsulated, re-windowed or had radiant barrier decking added since, and the load dropped while the tonnage assumption stayed put. An oversized unit cools the air so fast it shuts off before pulling much moisture out, and in Houston humidity that means a house that reads 74 degrees and feels like a wet towel.

Ask for the Manual J printout. Many contractors will run it in software in twenty minutes; the cheap ones will say "we go by square footage" and mean it. Rule-of-thumb sizing (500 square feet per ton) is how a 2,100-square-foot house ends up with a 4-ton system when 3 tons was enough. That mistake costs about $700 more in equipment and shortens compressor life through short cycling for as long as you own the house.

The license, the permit and the drain line: $1,000 of protection

Texas licenses air conditioning contractors through the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation under Occupations Code Chapter 1302, and the license number, which begins with TACLA or TACLB, is supposed to appear on contracts and advertising. Look it up on the TDLR license search before anyone starts work. It takes a minute and it tells you if the license is active and whether there are disciplinary actions on file. Our Texas HVAC license requirements page walks through what each license class covers.

The permit is a separate check. Houston and most other large Texas cities require a mechanical permit for a full changeout, which puts an inspector on your job. The $300 line above covers the fee and the time to pull it. A contractor who says "we don't pull permits for replacements" is telling you either that he's cutting a corner or that he doesn't hold a license in your city. Either way, it can come back on you when you sell the house and the buyer's inspector asks for the paperwork.

Then there is the drain line, the small item that causes most of the water damage I hear about in Gulf Coast homes. In August a Houston air handler can push several gallons of condensate an hour through a 3/4-inch PVC line. When that line clogs, and algae guarantees it eventually will, water backs up into the pan and then into your ceiling. A float switch on the primary line and another on the secondary pan shuts the system down before that happens. It's a $25 part on a $13,900 job. If it isn't listed, add it.

Ducts: the number nobody wants to quote

Attic duct leakage in the Houston area routinely runs 20% to 30% of system airflow on older homes. Putting a new 17 SEER2 condenser on leaky ducts is like buying a new engine for a car with a slow tire leak. A good replacement quote includes at least a duct leakage test or a visual inspection, mastic sealing at the plenum and boots, and a static pressure reading after the install. That work runs $700 to $1,500 and it's what turns the rated efficiency into real bills. If your quote says nothing about ducts, ask what pressure the system will run at and what it was measured at before. A vague answer means nobody measured.

How to use this against a quote

Put the three quotes side by side and mark which ones name a matched combination, include a load calculation, list the permit and the license number, and specify float switches and mastic. A quote that hits all of those at $13,900 beats a quote that hits half of them at $10,400 nearly every time, because the missing half is paid for later in comfort, repairs or a warranty claim the manufacturer denies over improper installation. If you want to see what Houston-area contractors quote against that checklist, our Houston HVAC page is the place to start.

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Frequently asked questions

How much does a new AC system cost in Houston in 2026?

A full split-system replacement in the Houston area typically runs $9,500 to $16,000 installed, depending on tonnage, efficiency tier and duct work. A 3 to 3.5 ton two-stage system with permit, float switches and duct sealing commonly lands near $13,000 to $14,500. Quotes well under $10,000 usually omit a load calculation, duct correction or permit.

What SEER2 rating is required for an AC in Texas?

For most of Texas the federal regional standard for a residential split-system air conditioner under 45,000 Btu is 14.3 SEER2, so any new system you can buy already meets the floor. Paying for 16 or 17 SEER2 is an operating-cost decision, and it only pays off if the ducts and sizing are right.

Does my AC replacement need a permit in Texas?

Houston and most large Texas cities require a mechanical permit for a full changeout, which brings an inspector to the job. Requirements are set city by city, so confirm with your building department. A contractor who says permits aren't needed for replacements should be asked to put that in writing.

How do I check a Texas HVAC contractor's license?

Use the license search on the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation site. Air conditioning contractor licenses begin with TACLA or TACLB. The search shows whether the license is active and whether disciplinary action is on file. The number should also appear on the contract or proposal.

What is a Manual J load calculation and do I really need one?

Manual J is the ACCA method for calculating how much cooling a specific house needs, based on insulation, windows, orientation, ducts and air leakage. It prevents the common mistake of installing a system a half-ton or full ton too big, which short-cycles and leaves Houston homes humid. Ask for the printout before you sign.

Is a 4-ton system better than a 3-ton in Houston heat?

Not automatically. An oversized system satisfies the thermostat quickly and shuts off before removing much moisture, so the house feels clammy at 74 degrees. The right size is whatever the load calculation says, which for many 2,000 square foot Houston homes is 3 to 3.5 tons.

Can I still get a federal tax credit for a new AC or heat pump?

No. The Section 25C credit ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025. A 2026 quote that subtracts it is out of date. Check your utility's program instead, such as Oncor's Take A Load Off Texas where it applies, and ask for the specific program name in writing.